Foreclosure Statistics Interpretations

December 27th, 2007

Foreclosures numbers are rising in Staten Island but perhaps it is not as bad as is reported. Data is pouring in but interpretations differ.

A professional online research team (RealtyTrac) reports 305 Staten Island foreclosures during November, making it the highest foreclosure offender amongst the counties in the state. In October the number was 218. Another data collecting agency – PropertyShark.com based in Manhattan reported that first-time foreclosure auctions in Staten Island rose from 47 in October to 70 in November. It was a notable increase but not as alarming as RealtyTrac had reported. The details of the PropertyShark are at variance with the former. The charge is that many firms inflate figures by double counting foreclosures. It makes a gray situation black – more so when these are repeatedly broadcast across the media.

RealtyTrac take into account many parameters for calculating foreclosures – initial notices, published notifications of auctions and the final step of auction sales. They are accused of grabbing attention by being sensational. Many organizations rely on RealtyTrac for compiling figures. This is not the first time that RealtyTrac is facing criticism.

On Staten Island it is easy to get confused with numbers leading to counting a single unit twice. In New York the foreclosure process is complicated and time consuming. Darren Blomquist, a spokesperson of RealtyTrac comments that people cautiously note their data especially when it comes to monthly totaling. But the methods applied are consistent. The company always points out that it is detailing foreclosure movements in a county and not just the precise number of auctions in the courthouse. Numbers of auctions can be exact but foreclosure movement, before the auction, consists of many activities.

The issue of statistics is complicated by the fact that till date the government has not evolved an official system of collecting data. But even after allowing for variations it is an undeniable fact that foreclosures have become a raging epidemic. Concentrations may vary and numbers may not be exact but there is no denial of the fact that the country is in the grips of a crisis, never before experienced. The blame game is going on, mud swinging is rampant, many scapegoats are paying with their heads but there is no denying the fact that foreclosures are ruling the roost right now. It has become a socio-economic problem of jumbo proportions. Has another Vesuvius erupted to leave behind the ashes of another Pompeii?